Evaluating and prioritizing restoration of riparian habitat for improving in-stream conditions for anadromous salmonids in the Columbia River basin. proposal 200718000

FY07-09 proposal 200718000

Section 1. Administrative

Proposal title	Evaluating and prioritizing restoration of riparian habitat for improving in-stream conditions for anadromous salmonids in the Columbia River basin.
Proposal ID	200718000
Organization	US Forest Service (USFS) - Pacific Northwest Research Station
Short description	Develop an aquatic-riparian model that predicts dynamics of streams and riparian zones, the potential distribution of salmonid habitat in watersheds, the potential for passive management to meet restoration goals, and the effects of management decisions.
Information transfer	The aquatic-riparian modeling package uses the VDDT state and transition modeling framework. VDDT is also used by USFS and the Oregon Department of Forestry to evaluate forest conditions and project effects of management decisions. Our models will be fully compatible with their upland landscape models. Both the USFS and the State of Oregon have expressed interest and we will work with them to add an aquatic-riparian component to their landscape planning efforts. Models and model documentation will be WEB available to other landscape planners throughout the region.
Proposal contact person or principal investigator

Contacts

Contact	Organization	Email
Form submitter
Steven M. Wondzell	U.S. Forest Service	[email protected]
All assigned contacts
Mary Jane Bergener	U.S. Forest Service	[email protected]
Steven M. Wondzell	U.S. Forest Service	[email protected]
Steven M. Wondzell	U.S. Forest Service	[email protected]
Steven M. Wondzell	U.S. Forest Service	[email protected]

Section 2. Locations

Province / subbasin: Mainstem/Systemwide / Systemwide

Latitude	Longitude	Waterbody	Description
		North Fork John Day River	North Fork John Day River Watershed
		Wenaha River	Wenaha River Watershed
		Grande Ronde River	Upper Grande Ronde River Watershed

Section 3. Focal species

primary: Chinook Snake River Spring/Summer ESU
primary: Steelhead Snake River ESU
secondary: Chinook Mid-Columbia River Spring ESU
secondary: Steelhead Middle Columbia River ESU
secondary: Bull Trout

Section 4. Past accomplishments

Year	Accomplishments

Section 5. Relationships to other projects

Funding source	Related ID	Related title	Relationship
Other: USFS	[no entry]	USFS Region 6 Forest Plan Revisions	USFS Region 6 is exploring the use of state and transition models using the VDDT framework as a landscape-scale planning tool to evaluate alternative management scenarios in their forest plan revisions. Our work would expand existing landscape-scale models to include riparian zones.
Other: USFS, BLM, State of Oregon	[no entry]	Interagency Mapping and Assessment Project (IMAP)	Both USFS-R6 and Oregon Department of Forestry have expressed interest in incorporating our riparian modeling approach into the IMAP effort which would allow inclusion of riparian zones in the upcoming state-wide Oregon Forest Assessment.
Other: USFS	[no entry]	Unified Aquatic Conservation Strategy (UACS)	Our modeling efforts complement the UACS strategy that will soon be finalized by the USFS for use throughout Region 6. Transition pathways and probabilities used in our models will be designed to simulate changes in land-use activities resulting from broad policy direction under the UACS. As a result, our long-term model simulations will provide a way of projecting expected restoration effectiveness of resulting changes in long-term management direction and thereby help inform adaptive management decisions.
[Funding Source left blank]	[no entry]	AREMP and PIBO Status and Trend Monitoring	Our modeling efforts will provide feedbacks between planned and ongoing monitoring and evaluation efforts within the Columbia River basin. Our models will complement the broad-scale monitoring and evaluation efforts from AREMP and from PIBO. Trends in watershed conditions measured in these monitoring programs can be compared to trajectories projected in our simulation models. These comparisons will help determine if revised management direction and restoration efforts are resulting in expected habitat recovery and thereby help inform adaptive management decisions.
BPA	199202604	Life Studies of Spring Chinook	Help link curent and projected habitat conditions from our study to abundance of salmonid populations.
BPA	199801600	Escapement/Productivity Spring	Help link curent and projected habitat conditions from our study to abundance of salmonid populations
BPA	199608300	Grand Ronde Watershed Restor	Provide examples of active restoration projects on which we will base our development of transition pathways and probabilities for our state and transition models.
BPA	198402100	John Day Habitat Enhancement	Provide examples of active restoration projects on which we will base our development of transition pathways and probabilities for our state and transition models.
BPA	200301700	Integrated Status/Effect Progr	Provide additional habitat monitoring data on which we can leverage our model validation efforts. Provide estimates of inter-annual variability in riparian and channel conditions to frame better our single-year measurement of these conditions.

Section 6. Biological objectives

Biological objectives	Full description	Associated subbasin plan	Strategy
A Dynamic Aquatic-Riparian Network planning model	This is an RM&E proposal for Tributary Habitat Uncertainty Research. Proposed research addresses items in the Grande Ronde SBP and the John Day SBP that focus on the importance of restoring riparian habitat and the ability to link the distribution of riparian and in-stream habitat to dynamic physical and biological processes. (Note: This is a system-wide proposal, however, because the Grande Ronde Sub-basin is the primary location of the proposed research that SBP is cited here.)	Grande Ronde	1) Riparian Conditions, 2) Channel Conditions, and 3) Sediment Conditions and associated strategies.
Demonstratin application of the model.	Apply the Dynamic Aquatic-Riparian Network planning model developed in this project to the upper Grande Ronde, Wenaha, and North Fork John Day Rivers to examine current conditions, examine potential of passive restoration to meet recovery goals, and examine the potential of active restoration to accelerate recovery.	Grande Ronde	1) Riparian Conditions, 2) Channel Conditions, and 3) Sediment Conditions and associated strategies.

Section 7. Work elements (coming back to this)

Work element name	Work element title	Description	Start date	End date	Est budget
Develop RM&E Methods and Designs	Task 1.1. Complete additional reach-scale state-and-transition models (STMs) for all geomorphic reach types in the upper Grande Ronde.	The existing prototype models developed for the upper Grande Ronde River basin require additional development to 1) complete STMs for several potential channel-morphologic groups, and 2) to fill in currently missing pathways and associated transition probabilities for several historic and current land-use activities.	10/1/2006	6/30/2007	$29,400
Biological objectives A Dynamic Aquatic-Riparian Network planning model			Metrics
Develop RM&E Methods and Designs	Task 1.2. Complete a spatially explicit framework to link STMs for individual stream reaches into a dynamic stream network.	Translate state and transition models built on the VDDT framework into spatially explicit models utilizing the Tool for Exploratory Landscape Scenario Analysis (TELSA). The TELSA simulations will allow directional movement of disturbances. We will adapt this feature to simulate episodic disturbances that propagate along the length of the stream network thereby allowing spatial & temporal synchrony of disturbance effects over the whole stream network.	1/1/2007	9/30/2007	$32,300
Biological objectives A Dynamic Aquatic-Riparian Network planning model			Metrics
Develop RM&E Methods and Designs	Task 1.3. Incorporate existing USFS upland models to link the dynamic aquatic-riparian network with spatially explicit models of the adjacent uplands.	Connect the spatially explicit Dynamic Aquatic-Riparian Network model to parallel modeling efforts being developed by the USFS, BLM, and State of Oregon. Combining the upland and riparian model allow will allow projecting potential effects of upland disturbances and management activities on riparian vegetation conditions and associated aquatic habitats.	1/1/2007	9/30/2007	$32,300
Biological objectives A Dynamic Aquatic-Riparian Network planning model			Metrics
Develop RM&E Methods and Designs	Task 1.4.a. Upper Grande Ronde preliminary analysis	Parameterize the beta-version of the model and conduct model runs to describe the range of variability in the distribution of current riparian forest and channel conditions and associated distribution of habitat quality for comparison to measured distribution of current conditions.	4/1/2007	12/31/2007	$27,900
Biological objectives A Dynamic Aquatic-Riparian Network planning model			Metrics
Collect/Generate/Validate Field and Lab Data	Task 1.4.b. Upper Grande Ronde validation sampling	Sample stream-riparian reaches delineated in the preliminary model analysis. Stream reaches will be sampled to describe the current distribution of channel and riparian conditions.	5/1/2007	9/30/2007	$72,800
Biological objectives A Dynamic Aquatic-Riparian Network planning model			Metrics Primary R, M, and E Type: watershed condition metrics
Disseminate Raw/Summary Data and Results	Task 1.4.c. Upper Grande Ronde data analysis	Channel morphologic data will be used to refine thresholds in the GIS-based delineation of potential channel morphologic groups. The vegetation data will be used to check the accuracy of mid-scale vegetation data layers acquired from IMAP and National Forest. Data describing sampled reaches will be examined to see if they support the discrete states and transformation pathways used in the existing state-and-transition modules or if the existing STMs need to be modified or if new STMs need to be developed.	10/1/2007	12/31/2007	$9,300
Biological objectives A Dynamic Aquatic-Riparian Network planning model			Metrics
Develop RM&E Methods and Designs	Task 1.4.d. Model revision	Models will be revised and calibrated to improve the fit between the current distribution of riparian and channel conditions and the distributions predicted by our models.	10/1/2007	3/31/2008	$18,500
Biological objectives A Dynamic Aquatic-Riparian Network planning model			Metrics
Develop RM&E Methods and Designs	Task 1.5.a. Completed model and publish PNW-GTR documentation	Write up documentation and users guide for the completed model and publish these as a Pacific Northwest Research Station General Technical Report describing the model’s application to forest plan revisions and other mid-scale project planning.	1/1/2008	9/30/2009	$50,091
Biological objectives A Dynamic Aquatic-Riparian Network planning model			Metrics
Disseminate Raw/Summary Data and Results	Task 1.5.b. Web site & Database	Establish a web site where models and model documentation can be freely downloaded by interested parties and archive collected data in a documented database stored on our project’s web site and made freely available for download by interested parties.	1/1/2007	9/30/2009	$47,700
Biological objectives A Dynamic Aquatic-Riparian Network planning model			Metrics
Develop RM&E Methods and Designs	Task 2.1. Extend model to Wenaha & N. Fk. John Day	We expect to encounter new geologic and geomorphic variability as we begin to extend our models to new watersheds. Consequently, the discrete states and transition pathways used in the existing state-and-transition models may need to be modified or new STMs developed as we encounter conditions in the Wenaha River or North Fork John Day Rivers that were not present in the upper Grande Ronde River basin.	10/1/2007	9/30/2008	$23,200
Biological objectives Demonstratin application of the model.			Metrics
Analyze/Interpret Data	Task 2.2.a. Final model analysis for the upper Grande Ronde, Wenaha, and NFJohn Day	Conduct model runs to compare and contrast 1) the results of continuing current land-use practice, 2) results of wide-scale passive restoration on public lands, and 3) the results of combining the high priority active restoration treatments called for in the Grande Ronde and John Day SBPs with projected changes in land-use management called for in the Unified Aquatic Conservation Strategy currently being developed for USFS and BLM lands.	1/1/2008	3/31/2009	$27,900
Biological objectives Demonstratin application of the model.			Metrics Primary R, M, and E Type: Compare and contrast management scenarios
Collect/Generate/Validate Field and Lab Data	Task 2.2.b. Wenaha validation sampling	Sample stream-riparian reaches delineated in the preliminary model analysis. Stream reaches will be sampled to describe the current distribution of channel and riparian conditions.	5/1/2008	9/30/2008	$76,600
Biological objectives Demonstratin application of the model.			Metrics Primary R, M, and E Type: Watershed condition metrics
Disseminate Raw/Summary Data and Results	Task 2.2.c. Wenaha data analysis	Collected data will be summarized to characterize the current distribution of riparian and channel conditions and compared to predicted distributions to examine model performance.	10/1/2008	12/31/2008	$9,300
Biological objectives Demonstratin application of the model.			Metrics
Collect/Generate/Validate Field and Lab Data	Task 2.2.d. John Day validation sampling	Sample stream-riparian reaches delineated in the preliminary model analysis. Stream reaches will be sampled to describe the current distribution of channel and riparian conditions.	5/1/2009	9/30/2009	$79,800
Biological objectives Demonstratin application of the model.			Metrics Primary R, M, and E Type: Watershed condition metrics
Disseminate Raw/Summary Data and Results	Task 2.2.e. John Day data analysis	Collected data will be summarized to characterize the current distribution of riparian and channel conditions and compared to predicted distributions to examine model performance.	6/30/2009	9/30/2009	$9,300
Biological objectives Demonstratin application of the model.			Metrics
Analyze/Interpret Data	Task 2.3. Final report, documentation, manuscripts	Report results of our final analyses of habitat potential, current conditions and projected trends of tributary habitats of the upper Grande Ronde River, Wenaha River, and North Fork John Day River. Post final report, completed model, model documentation, and QA/QCed database to our web site. Prepare and submit manuscripts for peer review.	6/1/2007	9/30/2009	$51,100
Biological objectives Demonstratin application of the model.			Metrics Primary R, M, and E Type: Compare and contrast management scenarios

Section 8. Budgets

Itemized estimated budget

Item	Note	FY07	FY08	FY09
Personnel	PI @ .25 FTE, Post-Doc @ 1.0 FTE, and Field Crew	$103,302	$110,666	$117,521
Fringe Benefits	18% base salary for PI & Post-Doc; 10% for Field Crew	$16,941	$18,166	$19,300
Supplies	includes FY2007 purchase of computer and software	$8,000	$4,000	$3,000
Travel	Attend professional meetings (PI & Post-Doc $1000 / person)	$2,000	$2,000	$2,000
Travel	GSA Summer Fleet Vehical Costs & PerDiem for field crew	$14,558	$15,041	$15,543
Other	Publication costs	$0	$0	$3,000
Other	Cost for local office space	$26,666	$27,734	$28,842
Overhead	PNW Station Admin Costs (11%)	$18,861	$19,537	$20,813
Totals		$190,328	$197,144	$210,019

Total estimated FY 2007-2009 budgets

Total itemized budget:	$597,491
Total work element budget:	$597,491

Cost sharing

Funding source/org	Item or service provided	FY 07 est value ($)	FY 08 est value ($)	FY 09 est value ($)	Cash or in-kind?	Status
Padific Northwest Research Station	Research Time	$14,001	$14,888	$15,419	In-Kind	Confirmed
Totals		$14,001	$14,888	$15,419

Section 9. Project future

FY 2010 estimated budget: $34,975
FY 2011 estimated budget: $34,975

Comments: Support for continuing tech-transfer efforts, web site development, and manuscript preparation.

Future O&M costs: None

Termination date: 09/30/2010
Comments: All work to be completed within 4 years of starting date. Expected starting date of 1 October 2006.

Final deliverables: 1. Completed Dynamic Aquatic-Riparian Network planning model. 2. A PNW-GTR fully documenting the model and describing its application for forest plan revisions and mid-scale project planning. 3. A project web site where models and model documentation can be downloaded by all interested parties. 4. Analysis of current conditions and projected trends of tributary habitats of the upper Grande Ronde River, Wenaha River, and North Fork John Day River. 5. Manuscripts submitted for peer review describing the model development and application.

Section 10. Narrative and other documents

Reviews and recommendations

FY07 budget	FY08 budget	FY09 budget	Total budget	Type	Category	Recommendation
NPCC DRAFT FUNDING RECOMMENDATIONS (Sep 15, 2006) [full Council recs]
$0	$0	$0	$0		Basinwide

ISRP PRELIMINARY REVIEW (Jun 2, 2006)

Recommendation: Fundable

NPCC comments: The proposed work is innovative and potentially of great use for stream restoration planning. The proposed work is a logical and important extension of the sponsor’s planning model and should greatly improve its utility. The model is particularly significant in that it is process-based and can be used to evaluate the effects of natural disturbances and land-use practices on aquatic and riparian habitats. The model could be used basinwide for restoration planning. An important addition to the model would be evaluation of the impacts of climate change. Technical and scientific background: The model addresses the problem of projecting future habitat states resulting from various land-use practices and can be used as a planning tool for managers. This model is unique in that it incorporates temporal dynamics of riparian condition and stream habitat. The problem is well defined and, for the most part, the technical background including the structure of the model and its outcomes are clearly explained. Rationale and significance to subbasin plans and regional programs: The model addresses objectives in the Grande Ronde and John Day subbasin plans but is broadly applicable to many arid land subbasins. It also addresses elements of the Council’s Research Plan and the Fish and Wildlife Program. Relationships to other projects: The project is relevant to several projects funded in the Fish and Wildlife Program. The sponsors plan collaborative efforts between the BLM, other units of the USFS, and the Oregon Department of Forestry. Objectives: The objectives logically follow from the work completed to date. As proposed by the sponsors, expansion of the model by making it spatially explicit would be an important addition and would increase its applicability. The sponsors propose to validate the model in three watersheds, a necessary step for examining its accuracy and applicability. The sponsors should include water withdrawal as a land-use practice. Tasks (work elements) and methods: The methods seem appropriate. The sponsors appear to have a lot of experience dealing with the various types of models used in the modeling framework. Field sampling will follow well-established protocols. Monitoring and evaluation: The work supports M&E. The sponsors approach is broadly consistent with the Pacific Northwest Aquatic Monitoring Partnership (PNAMP) and Collaborative Systemwide Monitoring and Evaluation Program (CSMEP), and they state that they can modify their methods to adapt to adapt to basinwide monitoring protocols. Facilities, equipment, and personnel: The USFS facilities are well equipped to support the work. The sponsors are well qualified, having already produced peer-reviewed publications on the model. They are experienced in working with the suite of models making up the modeling framework. Information transfer: The sponsors will establish a web site and make the model available basinwide. Peer-reviewed publications are planned. There is every reason to believe that they will be completed because the sponsors have already published work on the model. Benefits to focal and non-focal species: The work is unique in the Columbia River basin and will benefit salmonids by projecting long-term land use impacts on stream habitat and providing a tool for assessing restoration actions. The utility of the dynamic model needs further validation. The work will not deleteriously effect non-focal species and likely will benefit wildlife that use the riparian zone.

ISRP FINAL REVIEW (Aug 31, 2006)

Recommendation: Fundable