Forecasting Hydrosystem Operations to Benefit Anadromous Fish Migration proposal 200202700

FY07-09 proposal 200202700

Section 1. Administrative

Proposal title	Forecasting Hydrosystem Operations to Benefit Anadromous Fish Migration
Proposal ID	200202700
Organization	US Department of Energy (DOE)
Short description	We propose to apply state-of-the-art computer models that describe the complex power-generation, hydrodynamic, and water quality environment in the lower Snake and lower Columbia rivers and to relate this information back to impacts on migrating salmon.
Information transfer	Information will be available in the form of a final report and peer-reviewed publications. Publications will be available on the Web as downloadable PDF format documents. Results from model simulations will be available through the Web as GIS layers and/or text data files. Expected outcomes of this project are quantitative.
Proposal contact person or principal investigator

Contacts

Contact	Organization	Email
Form submitter
Christopher Cook	Pacific Northwest National Laboratory	[email protected]
All assigned contacts
Richard Allen	Synexus Global Inc.	[email protected]
Christopher Cook	Pacific Northwest National Laboratory	[email protected]
Christopher Cook	Pacific Northwest National Laboratory	[email protected]
Christopher Cook	Pacific Northwest National Laboratory	[email protected]
Dennis Dauble	Pacific Northwest National Laboratory	[email protected]
Diana Hurdowar-Castro	Synexus Global Inc.	[email protected]
Marshall Richmond	Pacific Northwest National Laboratory	[email protected]
John Serkowski	Pacific Northwest National Laboratory	[email protected]
Lance Vail	Pacific NW National Laboratory	[email protected]

Section 2. Locations

Province / subbasin: Mainstem/Systemwide / Systemwide

Latitude	Longitude	Waterbody	Description
45.917	-119.333	Columbia River	McNary Dam (Lake Wallula)
45.7	-120.67	Columbia River	John Day Dam (Lake Umatilla)
45.6	-121.1	Columbia River	The Dalles Dam (Lake Celilo)
45.6	-121.95	Columbia River	Bonneville Dam and Lake
46.65	-117.417	Snake River	Lower Granite Dam and Reservoir
46.583	-118.017	Snake River	Little Goose Reservoir (Lake Bryan)
46.55	-118.533	Snake River	Lower Monumental Reservoir (Lake HG West)
46.233	-118.867	Snake River	Ice Harbor Reservoir (Lake Sacajawea)

Section 3. Focal species

primary: All Anadromous Fish
secondary: All Anadromous Salmonids
secondary: Chinook Snake River Fall ESU

Section 4. Past accomplishments

Year	Accomplishments
2005	Calib/Valid CE-QUAL-W2 models. Cook, CB, B Dibrani, MC Richmond, et al (2005) Hydraulic Characteristics of the Lower Snake River during Periods of Juvenile Fall Chinook Salmon Migration, PNNL-15532, Pacific Northwest National Lab, Project Final Report.
2004	Release of all project collected field data (2002, 2003, 2004): long-term monitoring of water temperature (>100 temp loggers), water velocity (multiple ADCP surveys), bathymetry survey, and met conditions (AgriMet station) at Lower Granite Res.
2003	Cook, C.B. and M.C. Richmond (2004). Monitoring and Simulating 3-D Density Currents at the Confluence of the Snake and Clearwater Rivers, in Critical Transitions in Water and Environmental Resources Management, ed. by Sehike, Hayes, & Stevens, ASCE press.
2002	Cook C.B., C.L. Rakowski, M.C. Richmond, et al. (2003) Numerically Simulating the Hydrodynamic and Water Quality Environment for Migrating Salmon in the Lower Snake River, PNNL-14297, Pacific Northwest National Lab, Project Report.

Section 5. Relationships to other projects

Funding source	Related ID	Related title	Relationship
BPA	199102900	Post-Release Survival of Fall	Numerical models applied in proj 2002027 will augment this project by providing information on the physical river environment, under both existing and proposed flow strategies, that are not possible by monitoring alone.
Other: NOAA/USACE	RPA 143	Water temperature modeling group	Collaboration, data sharing, and model development results sharing.
BPA	200203200	Fall Chin Passage Lower Granit	Numerical models applied in proj 2002027 will augment this project by providing information on the physical river environment, under both existing and proposed flow strategies, that are not possible by monitoring alone

Section 6. Biological objectives

Biological objectives	Full description	Associated subbasin plan	Strategy
flow augmentation conditions	decrease uncertainty regarding the effects of flow augmentation by quantifying downstream changes in water velocity, total dissolved gas concentrations, and water temperature.	None	ISAB 2003-1: Review of Flow Augmentation AND Mainstem amendments, Overarching strategies, pg 16, pg 22 AND the 2004 UPA Section III.E, ESP Specific Actions, Key Alternatives under Development, pg 43 AND the 2000 BiOp RPA143
forecast alternative watershed conditions	using a Monte-Carlo analysis, forecast mainstem river conditions and associated power generation/costs under various operational strategies, constraints, and meteorological uncertainties.	None	Mainstem Amendments, specific objectives and performance standards, pg 12 and 21, AND Mainstem Amendments, strategies in water management, pg 22, AND the 2004 BiOp UPA, RME Substrategy 2.1, pg 91 and UPA Section III.E. ESP Specific Actions, Key Alts, p 43
load following/peaking-power operations	quantify changes in water velocity/water quality associated with load-following operations, quantify hydroelectric costs associated with these operations, and link with collaborating projects studying the biological impacts of load following	None	ISAB 2003-1: Review of Flow Augmentation AND Mainstem Amendments, Overarching strategies, pg 16, 19, 22 AND the 2004 UPA Section IV, RME Substrategy 2.1, pg 91
natural hydrograph restoration	computation of volume allocation trade-offs, computation of the hydraulic/water quality effects (travel time, dissolved gas levels, etc) due to various operation strategies, and computation of the associated hydroelectric power revenue	None	Mainstem Amendments, specific objectives and performance standards, pg 12 and 21, AND Mainstem Amendments, Overarching Strategies, pg 16.
spillway discharge optimization	provide fisheries and dam operators with information to optimize spillway discharge levels that do not exceed dissolved gas standards, quantify the associated hydroelectric costs, and link with collaborating projects that are studying the biological impacts of dissolved gas and tailrace egress.	None	Mainstem Amendments, specific objectives and performance standards, pg 13, AND Mainstem Amendments, Specific objectives for migration conditions, pg 19

Section 7. Work elements (coming back to this)

Work element name	Work element title	Description	Start date	End date	Est budget
Analyze/Interpret Data	WE1 - Adapt hydropower model ColumbiaVISTA to the project’s domain and simulate hydrologic conditions.	Power and water operations will initially be simulated for the entire Columbia River system in 8-hour blocks over one representative yearly hydrologic cycle. Results will be generated for two scenarios: • “Status Quo” -- using current rulings regarding voluntary/involuntary spill, minimum flows, and spill pattern as decided by fisheries managers/dam operators • “Flexible Constraint Set” – Rigid constraints on the modeled hydropower system will be relaxed This will be followed by more detailed operations analyses over the same one year horizon for a geographically limited area—the eight reservoirs shown in Figure 1. The hourly sequence of water levels and flows for each reach of the system will be determined for the two cases identified above, and will serve as input boundary conditions for the other models. The power revenues for each case will also be quantified.	1/1/2007	9/30/2007	$150,857
Biological objectives flow augmentation conditions forecast alternative watershed conditions load following/peaking-power operations natural hydrograph restoration spillway discharge optimization			Metrics Focal Area: limited Systemwide: see Figure 1
Analyze/Interpret Data	WE2 - Adapt the 2D (longitudinal-lateral) hydrodynamic and dissolved gas model MASS2 to the project’s domain and simulate hydrologic conditions.	The existing MASS2 model will be configured and applied to the eight reservoirs and a 35-mile reach downstream of Bonneville Dam shown in Figure 1. Spillway dissolved gas generation characteristics (source functions, spill patterns) have changed somewhat since the model was developed, but during this initial phase of the project the existing model functions will be retained. The upstream boundaries of the model will be the free-flowing Columbia, lower Clearwater, and middle Snake rivers. The operations data required for MASS2 will be generated in Work Element 1. Using those operations, MASS2 results will be generated for 2007 conditions.	1/1/2007	9/30/2007	$94,803
Biological objectives flow augmentation conditions forecast alternative watershed conditions load following/peaking-power operations natural hydrograph restoration spillway discharge optimization			Metrics Focal Area: limited Systemwide: see Figure 1
Analyze/Interpret Data	WE3 - Adapt the 2D (longitudinal-vertical) hydrodynamic and water temperature model CE-QUAL-W2 to the project’s domain and simulate hydrologic conditions.	The existing CE-QUAL-W2 model will be extended from the lower Snake River (scope of previous project) to include the lower Columbia River downstream to Bonneville Dam. Model results will be checked against available 2007 field data, however any identified improvements will be resolved under Work Element 7. The upstream boundaries of the model will be the free-flowing Columbia, lower Clearwater, and middle Snake rivers. The operations data required for CE-QUAL-W2 will be generated in Work Element 1. Using those operations, CE-QUAL-W2 results will be generated for 2007 conditions.	1/1/2007	9/30/2007	$94,985
Biological objectives flow augmentation conditions forecast alternative watershed conditions load following/peaking-power operations natural hydrograph restoration spillway discharge optimization			Metrics Focal Area: limited Systemwide: see Figure 1
Analyze/Interpret Data	WE4 - Generate reservoir-integrated metrics (FINS) and produce preliminary visualization of model results	Results generated by the hydrodynamic models (MASS2 and CE-QUAL-W2) will be visualized using the particle tracking model FINS. Particles will be introduced into the upstream boundary of the domain and tracked through the system. Time histories of water velocity (and hence time-of-travel), dissolved gas exposure, and water temperature will be computed. Also under this task, static contour maps of dissolved oxygen (plan view) and temperature (reservoir centerline) will be generated, plus methods for showing reservoir-by-reservoir power generation and associated costs.	6/1/2007	9/30/2007	$44,165
Biological objectives flow augmentation conditions forecast alternative watershed conditions load following/peaking-power operations natural hydrograph restoration spillway discharge optimization			Metrics Focal Area: limited Systemwide: see Figure 1
Produce/Submit Scientific Findings Report	WE5 - Prepare Year 1 annual report	A technical report will be generated that documents outcomes of Work Elements 1 through 4. These Work Elements cover application of the existing models to the project’s domain and simulation of hydrologic conditions during parts of 2007. The report will follow standard scientific format and include an executive summary, introduction, methods, results, discussion, recommendation, and literature cited section, as well as tables, figures, and data appendices.	8/1/2007	9/30/2007	$39,534
Biological objectives			Metrics
Analyze/Interpret Data	WE6 - Develop mechanisms for water quality model results to impact the hydropower model.	Methods will be developed to take information generated by Work Element 4 (water quality model results and particle tracking model results) and incorporate that information back into the ColumbiaVISTA decision support system. This represents a major shift regarding how flows (i.e., system-wide power operations/generation) are released/optimized since water quality will now be directly incorporated. Initially, the results from the first iteration of Task 1 and Task 4 will be used to refine the operational constraints to yield the desired target water quality and fish habitat. Task 1 and Task 4 will then be repeated to yield modified results with improved fishery habitat knowledge and improved power economics. Subsequently, the relationship between the hydrologic constraints and the environmental quality outcome will be utilized on a periodic basis (e.g. weekly) during an AUTO Vista run. We anticipate that AUTO Vista will operate according to the following sequence. • AUTO Vista will simulate a one week period, using constraints • quality models then simulate that week, using Vista water levels and flows as input. Constraints for the following week will be established based on the quality outputs (e.g. percent spill will be adjusted based on water quality conditions). • AUTO Vista will then simulate the following week, and so on.	10/1/2007	9/30/2008	$138,214
Biological objectives flow augmentation conditions forecast alternative watershed conditions load following/peaking-power operations natural hydrograph restoration spillway discharge optimization			Metrics Focal Area: limited Systemwide: see Figure 1
Analyze/Interpret Data	WE7 - Validate the modeling suite using 2007 field data	Both hydrodynamic and water quality models will be validated using 2007 field data, including time series of actual project operations, observed total dissolved gas concentrations, and water temperature. Model improvements identified under Work Elements 2 and 3 will be implemented to improve model reliability and robustness. Expected improvements include updating bathymetric representations of the river resulting from dredging activities, dissolved gas parameterization, swimming depth for juvenile fish (FINS), etc. Goodness-of-fit metrics will be developed that quantify the ability of the models to simulate the range of hydraulic and water quality conditions..	10/1/2007	9/30/2008	$149,922
Biological objectives flow augmentation conditions forecast alternative watershed conditions load following/peaking-power operations natural hydrograph restoration spillway discharge optimization			Metrics Focal Area: limited Systemwide: see Figure 1
Analyze/Interpret Data	WE8 - Simulate hydrologic conditions for the 2008 field season	The 2008 field season (i.e., periods when TDG fixed monitoring data and thermistor string data in the lower Snake River are available) will be simulated by the hydrodynamic and water quality models. Model boundary conditions will be the boundary conditions generated under Work Element 6. Using those operations data, the improved models developed under Work Element 7 will be checked against available 2008 field data.	6/1/2008	9/30/2008	$53,743
Biological objectives flow augmentation conditions forecast alternative watershed conditions load following/peaking-power operations natural hydrograph restoration spillway discharge optimization			Metrics Focal Area: limited Systemwide: see Figure 1
Analyze/Interpret Data	WE9 - Improve visualization of model results	Model results generated by VISTA, CE-QUAL-W2, MASS2, and FINS visualized using advanced visualization techniques which are capable of generate visualization automatically with little user intervention. Time histories of water velocity (and hence time-of-travel), dissolved gas exposure, and water temperature will be computed. In addition, dynamic (i.e., animated movies) contour maps of dissolved oxygen (plan view) and temperature (reservoir centerline) will be generated, plus methods for showing reservoir-by-reservoir power generation and associated costs.	6/1/2008	9/30/2008	$53,556
Biological objectives flow augmentation conditions forecast alternative watershed conditions load following/peaking-power operations natural hydrograph restoration spillway discharge optimization			Metrics Focal Area: limited Systemwide: see Figure 1
Produce/Submit Scientific Findings Report	WE10 - Prepare Year 2 annual report	A technical report will be generated that documents outcomes of Work Elements 6 through 9. These Work Elements cover linking of model results to improve forecasting/optimization abilities for anadromous fish, validation of the hydrodynamic and water quality models, and application of the models to the 2008 salmon migration period. In addition, improved visualization techniques will be developed. The report will follow standard scientific format and include an executive summary, introduction, methods, results, discussion, recommendation, and literature cited section, as well as tables, figures, and data appendices.	8/1/2008	9/30/2008	$33,570
Biological objectives			Metrics
Analyze/Interpret Data	WE11 - Develop mechanisms for near-real-time (in-season) use of the modeling suite.	The biological objectives tracked by this project would be more useful to the Action Agencies, fisheries managers, and other concerned parties if near-real-time information regarding the state-of-the-system could be achieved. Data collection by the US Army Corps (dam ops (SCADA/GDACS), fixed DGAS monitors, and thermistor string data in lower Snake River reservoir forebays) is becoming available. Such data should be used for forecasting and in-season decision-making to maximize biological health. This work element will test the feasibility of using near-real-time hourly data to generate week-ahead +forecasts of hydrologic conditions and water quality parameters. Forecasts will be updated on a daily basis to dynamically assist fisheries, power, and water managers in decision making.	10/1/2008	9/30/2009	$275,413
Biological objectives flow augmentation conditions forecast alternative watershed conditions load following/peaking-power operations natural hydrograph restoration spillway discharge optimization			Metrics Focal Area: limited Systemwide: see Figure 1
Analyze/Interpret Data	WE12 - Refine and improve visualization techniques to display power generation costs, hydrodynamic conditions, and water quality parameters for near-real-time visualization.	As with Work Element 9, our goal is to approach near-real-time model domain maps and forecasts. This work element is to improve visualization techniques and to display to the region for consensus regarding the most useful format and posting (e.g., DART web-site).	10/1/2008	9/30/2009	$60,187
Biological objectives			Metrics Focal Area: limited Systemwide: see Figure 1
Produce/Submit Scientific Findings Report	WE13 - Prepare project completion report	In the final year of the project the principal investigators will prepare a project completion report that summarizes all three years of the project and includes the final year’s annual data. The report will follow standard scientific format and include an executive summary, introduction, methods, results, discussion, recommendations, and literature cited sections, as well as tables, figures and data appendices.	4/1/2009	9/30/2009	$60,558
Biological objectives			Metrics
Produce/Submit Scientific Findings Report	WE14 - Write article(s) for submission to peer-reviewed journals	At the completion of this project, and possibly sooner, if warranted by preliminary results, the principal investigators will collaborate to submit paper(s) to peer reviewed scientific journals such as ASCE Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, ASCE Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, North American Journal of Fisheries Management, and/or other journals as appropriate.	1/1/2007	9/30/2009	$33,696
Biological objectives			Metrics
Manage and Administer Projects	WE15 - Manage project	Each of the principal investigators will be responsible for management of the overall project, as well as their organizational responsibilities. Management activities will include administrative responsibilities required for compliance with BPA program requirements such as metric reporting, financial reporting (accruals), and development of annual statements of work.	1/1/2007	9/30/2009	$35,709
Biological objectives			Metrics
Manage and Administer Projects	WE16 - Prepare quarterly reports (WE 185)	Quarterly reports to BPA’s contracting offices technical representative (COTR) will be prepared by PNNL. These reports will describe any particularly interesting results obtained during the quarter, any deviations from the scheduled work, a plan for correcting those problems, and a budget analysis.	1/1/2007	9/30/2009	$34,454
Biological objectives			Metrics

Section 8. Budgets

Itemized estimated budget

Item	Note	FY07	FY08	FY09
Personnel	FTE= Sci Eng=3.55;Admin Prof 0.02; Clerical 1.03	$102,590	$106,014	$110,568
Fringe Benefits	Based on 6248 Hours	$35,496	$35,833	$35,934
Supplies	Computing Hardware, printer consumables, Field View License, Mat'l Lab License	$15,059	$14,798	$15,154
Travel	Niagara Falls, Ontario Canada	$4,034	$4,115	$4,214
Other	Subcontract: Synexus Global	$125,000	$125,000	$125,000
Overhead	Org OH, Program Dev, G&A, Serv Assesment	$164,368	$166,171	$164,018
Totals		$446,547	$451,931	$454,888

Total estimated FY 2007-2009 budgets

Total itemized budget:	$1,353,366
Total work element budget:	$1,353,366

Cost sharing

Funding source/org	Item or service provided	FY 07 est value ($)	FY 08 est value ($)	FY 09 est value ($)	Cash or in-kind?	Status
Totals		$0	$0	$0

Section 9. Project future

FY 2010 estimated budget: $0
FY 2011 estimated budget: $0

Comments:

Future O&M costs:

Termination date: 9/30/2009
Comments:

Final deliverables: In the final year of the project the principal investigators will prepare a project completion report that summarizes all three years of the project and includes the final year’s annual data. The report will follow standard scientific format and include an executive summary, introduction, methods, results, discussion, recommendations, and literature cited sections, as well as tables, figures and data appendices. At the completion of this project, and possibly sooner, if warranted by preliminary results, the principal investigators will collaborate to submit paper(s) to peer reviewed scientific journals such as ASCE Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, ASCE Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, North American Journal of Fisheries Management, and/or other journals as appropriate.

Section 10. Narrative and other documents

Reviews and recommendations

FY07 budget	FY08 budget	FY09 budget	Total budget	Type	Category	Recommendation
NPCC FINAL FUNDING RECOMMENDATIONS (Oct 23, 2006) [full Council recs]
$0	$0	$0	$0	Expense	Basinwide	Do Not Fund
NPCC DRAFT FUNDING RECOMMENDATIONS (Sep 15, 2006) [full Council recs]
$0	$0	$0	$0		Basinwide

ISRP PRELIMINARY REVIEW (Jun 2, 2006)

Recommendation: Fundable

NPCC comments: This proposal is intended to link results of individual hydraulic, power generation, water quality, and particle tracking models (some of which have been in use for several years) to improve the forecasting/optimization abilities for anadromous fish. The investigators would validate the hydrodynamic and water quality models, and apply the models to the 2008 salmon migration period. In addition, improved visualization techniques will be developed. This proposal does a good job of outlining the values of the individual models and the combined model suite. With the possible exception of the FINS model that puts them all together, the individual models have been tested and accepted in the basin. The linking of hydrodynamic and water quality models should begin the movement to a more dynamic management of the hydrosystem. The proposal provides discrete systematic objectives, with reasonable timelines. Quantifying impacts of hydrosystem operation will decrease the uncertainty about the effects of flow augmentation and load following, and will help optimize spillway discharge, make tradeoffs in alternative volume allocations, and forecast alternative watershed conditions. The investigators will file project reports and, if appropriate, publish in peer-reviewed journals. Also, they will explore making their results available in near real time, which would be of great value to managers of the Federal Columbia River Power System (FCRPS). However, they have not been very good about communicating their results in the past -- mainly a handful of project reports and proceedings. The proposal could be improved by providing more details about the biological benefits and the adaptive management aspects. They talk about the need for a three-dimensional model but state they are going to use a two-dimensional model. Salmon are treated as passive particles, which can be problematic. There will be limits to how this can actually be applied. Even with the limits of the fish components of this model, exploration of the physical components of the model will be useful. This effort should get better as time and knowledge progresses. For load following, they might need shorter duration than eight-hour periods. It is good that they are looking at this. A better understanding of the dynamics of the hydrosystem and better control of temperature and dissolved gas enabled by these models would benefit both anadromous fish and non-focal species.

ISRP FINAL REVIEW (Aug 31, 2006)

Recommendation: Fundable