FY 2003 Mainstem/Systemwide proposal 199602000

Section 1. Administrative

Project location

Reasonable and Prudent Alternatives (RPAs)

Section 2. Past accomplishments

Section 3. Relationships to other projects

Section 4. Budget for Planning and Design phase

Task-based budget

Outyear objectives-based budget

Outyear budgets for Planning and Design phase

Section 5. Budget for Construction and Implementation phase

Task-based budget

Outyear objectives-based budget

Outyear budgets for Construction and Implementation phase

Section 6. Budget for Operations and Maintenance phase

Task-based budget

Outyear objectives-based budget

Outyear budgets for Operations and Maintenance phase

Section 7. Budget for Monitoring and Evaluation phase

Task-based budget

Outyear objectives-based budget

Outyear budgets for Monitoring and Evaluation phase

Section 8. Estimated budget summary

Itemized budget

Total estimated budget

Reason for change in estimated budget

The addition of steelhead mark groups requires additional PIT tags.

Reason for change in scope

Management need for steelhead passage and SAR data. This meets the recommendations of the State and Tribal fish managers and is consistant with the Council's ISAB reviews in 1997 and 1998.

Cost sharing

Reviews and recommendations

This information was not provided on the original proposals, but was generated during the review process.

Comment:

When will the project end? The reason for the project stated on page 2 is to answer," can transportation of fish to below Bonneville Dam compensate for the effect of the hydrosystem on juvenile survival rates of Snake River spring and summer chinook salmon during their downstream migration?" It appears that the direction of the project is changing to the point that the proposal should be considered a new proposal. The project began in 1996 yet the proposal notes a rather tentative goal on page 2, and repeated on page 3, " This study is intended to begin to provide the basis for the Mainstem Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) Program's analysis of long term alternatives for recovery of depressed listed and unlisted stocks of chinook and steelhead." The response should contain a careful self-review evaluating the advantages and disadvantages of combining this project with the CBFWA proposal #35033 to form a systemwide monitoring and evaluation project.

The proponents should summarize progress toward publication of the results and methods in the peer reviewed literature, if any attempt has been made.

It was mentioned that bootstrapping would be used to obtain confidence intervals on the point estimates and we agree that this may be an appropriate procedure. However, the problem is deeper than estimation of variances. The formulas proposed are ratios of ratios and the magnitude of mathematical bias in the point estimates should also be evaluated. In addition, maximum likelihood estimators and perhaps others should be developed and contrasted to the proposed ad hoc estimators to determine the most accurate and precise estimates possible with the available data.

Why is NMFS not on the interagency Comparative Survival Study (CSS) Oversight Committee? It seems that they are one of the primary users of the results and should be directly involved in oversight of the project.

Action Agency/NMFS RME Group Comments:

HYDRO SUBGROUP -- The proposal identified several Hydro-related RME-RPAs that the research would support 185 ("D"), 187 ("D"), 188 (lower Columbia stocks), and 189 (EM).

The RME Hydro work group recognizes that the proposed research has the potential to provide data and estimates useful in satisfying elements in those RPAs. Hydro-related RME RPAs 185, 187, 188, and 189. The smolt survival estimates have further application in the context of testing compliance with the Hydro performance standards as noted for other proposals in this review. The proposal was thorough in specifying sample sizes comprising key index and treatment groups. However, it would be beneficial if that information was translated into precision estimates. Alternatively power analyses for key hypothesis tests could be presented to demonstrate the estimates will be satisfactory for evaluating key hypotheses remaining in the region. This would also aid in assessing the utility of the information in performance tests that would be performed at the checkins.

ISRP Remarks on RME Group Comments:

In general, the ISRP is in agreement with the comments.

Comment:

Comment:

Comment:

A subcommittee of the ISRP met with representatives of the Comparative Survival Study (CSS) in Seattle on September 24, 2002. We appreciate the sponsor's willingness to meet and discuss the technical issues of the design and analysis of the study. The long-term solutions to the mathematical and statistical problems in estimation of smolt-to-adult return rates (Bonneville to Bonneville and Bonneville to Low Granite SARs) appear to be: 1) detection of sufficient numbers of PIT tagged juveniles passing Bonneville No. 2 Dam at the planned corner collector, estimates of mortality of fish passing via that route, and/or 2) sufficiently large sample sizes of PIT tagged fish downstream of Bonneville. The ISRP recommends that these sampling efforts for PIT tagged juveniles be given high priority by the Council and the Corps of Engineers. In particular, task 2 of proposal 198331900 from NMFS for development of PIT tag detection in the corner collector at Bonneville No. 2 Dam should be given high priority.

Various scientists in the region, in particular scientists from the CSS project and NMFS, have considered the problems in estimation of the LGD to LGD SARs from currently available data and have apparently arrived at what they consider to be the "best" formulas. Unfortunately, the formulas are complicated, convoluted, and in general, very unsatisfactory from a statistical point of view. There is high probability that the complicated, convoluted methods will continue to spawn arguments and counter arguments over trivial issues that will occupy the resources of the region, because the stakes are high (e.g., high costs of spill, high costs of transportation, unknown long term effects of the non-normative transportation, high costs of augmented flow, etc).

We do not provide unqualified endorsement of the particular estimation formulas that are proposed, and we recommend that continuing statistical methods research be directed at investigating the performance of various proposed estimators and possible alternatives, including but not limited to the proposed methods and planned bootstrapping. Such research on mathematical and statistical methods could be pursued by the sponsors of this project, and by others. As an aid to clarity in comparison among possible alternative analyses, we recommend that the FPC make available a single reference data set which includes all the necessary interpretation of route of passage of PIT tagged fish and culls any suspect or ambiguous data that might be subject to further interpretation. The budget for the recommended mathematical and statistical analyses is relatively minor compared to the total cost of the project so investigation of our unresolved questions about statistical methods should not require substantial reallocation of the budget in this project.

Comment:

Comments
This study will provide better insight into management strategies which will aid salmon recovery. A good study which complements NMFS study. NOAA Fisheries agrees with the ISRP and RME group comments that it would be beneficial if that information was translated into precision estimates and that NMFS be part of the Interagency Comparative Oversight Committee.

Already ESA Required?
No

Biop?
Yes

Comment:

Comment:

Comments:
Address ISRP concerns, rework funding for mathematical and statistical models for ISRP review

Comment:

Comment:

Sponsor comments: See comment at Council's website