FY 2000 proposal 199105100

Section 1. General administrative information
Section 2. Past accomplishments
Section 3. Relationships to other projects
Section 4. Budgets for planning/design phase
Section 5. Budgets for construction/implementation phase
Section 6. Budgets for operations/maintenance phase
Section 7. Budgets for monitoring/evaluation phase
Section 8. Budget summary

Reviews and Recommendations

Additional documents

Title	Type
199105100 Narrative	Narrative

Section 1. Administrative

Proposal title	Monitoring and Evaluation Statistical Support
Proposal ID	199105100
Organization	University of Washington (UW)
Proposal contact person or principal investigator
Name	John R. Skalski
Mailing address	School of Fisheries, UW, 1325 Fourth Avenue, Suite 1820 Seattle, WA 98101-2509
Phone / email	2066164851 / [email protected]
Manager authorizing this project
Review cycle	FY 2000
Province / Subbasin	Mainstem/Systemwide / Systemwide
Short description	Develops statistical methods needed in monitoring and evaluating salmonid recovery plans. Provides added-value analyses of tagging data to address regional issues. Provides smolt migration timing predictions on internet for the fisheries community.
Target species	Chinook salmon, coho, and steelhead

Project location

Latitude	Longitude	Description

Reasonable and Prudent Alternatives (RPAs)

Sponsor-reported:

RPA

Relevant RPAs based on NMFS/BPA review:

Reviewing agency	Action #	BiOp Agency	Description

Section 2. Past accomplishments

Year	Accomplishment
1991	Report on historical brand release data for the Snake River. Report identified serious bias in travel time estimation using brand data and the difficulties in establishing travel time relationships with existing data.
1992	Report on "strawman" smolt monitoring design for Snake/Columbia River systems. Report became the conceptual design for the existing PIT-tag detection system for the Snake River.
1993	Report on adult PIT-tag returns. Results showed annual patterns of adult returns differed across years even for closely related river systems.
1994	Development and testing of Program RealTime PIT Forecaster statistical software using pattern recognition and neuronets to predict outmigration timing of spring runs of wild Snake River spring/summer chinook at Lower Granite Dam in real time.
1995	Refinement of RealTime PIT Forecaster statistical software and initial testing of RealTime Passage Index Forecaster statistical software to predict outmigration timing of summer/fall runs of juvenile subyearling chinook at Lower Granite Dam.
1996	RealTime model linked with CRiSP model of Project 8910800 to extend predictions of migration timing to include Lower Snake River hydroprojects and McNary Dam. Expansion of internet access to include historical run timing and flow data at hydroprojects.
1997	RealTime predictions continued along with the addition of Redfish Lake sockeye salmon and steelhead. Study of effects of river pulsing on smolt travel times, estimation of FGE and SE from PIT-tag data, season-wide survival rates, and growth rates.
1998	Completed study of relationships between coho age-at-return CWT data and early ocean survival as function of ocean conditions. Assessed internal consistency of hydroacoustics, PIT-tag and balloon-tag studies in explaining Lower Granite Dam survival.

Section 3. Relationships to other projects

Project ID	Title	Description
8332300	Smolt Condition & Arrival Timing at Lower Granite [IDFG]	Dependent. Program RealTime uses PIT-tag detections and passage index data to generate in-season, real-time, internet-based information on status and prediction of migration timing for ESA-listed wild stocks as they pass through FCRPS.
8401400	Smolt Monitoring at Federal Dams [NMFS-ETSD]	Dependent. Program RealTime uses PIT-tag detections and passage index data to generate in-season, real-time, internet-based information on status and prediction of migration timing for ESA-listed wild stocks as they pass through FCRPS.
8712700	Smolt Monitoring by Non-Federal Entities [PSMFC]	Dependent. Program RealTime uses PIT-tag detections and passage index data to generate in-season, real-time, internet-based information on status and prediction of migration timing for ESA-listed wild stocks as they pass through FCRPS.
8910700	Statistical Support for Salmonid Survival Studies [UW]	Complementary. This project develops the statisitical methods used in providing the value-added analyses of historical tagging data.
8910800	Monitoring and Evaluation Modeling Support [UW]	Complementary. RealTime model is linked with the CRiSP model of Project 8910800 to extend predictions of migration timing to sites below Lower Granite Dam. Supports DART which provides real-time, on-line database services and presentations.
9008000	Columbia Basin PIT-Tag Information System (PTAGIS) [PSMFC]	Dependent. Provides high quality real-time PIT-tag data made available through PTAGIS as input to the daily runs of the Program RealTime PIT-forecaster to generate internet-based predictions of run timing for individual and combined ESA wild stocks.
9102800	Monitoring Smolt Migration of Wild Snake River Spring/Summer Chinook [NMFS]	Dependent. This project PIT-tags wild ESA-listed stocks in natal streams. PIT-tag detections are used by Program RealTime the following spring to make in-season predictions for potential use by TMT and fisheries community.
9107200	Sockeye Samon Captive Broodstock [IDFG]	Complementary. This project applies Program RealTime to make run-timing predictions for Redfish Lake sockeye available for use by the TMT and fisheries community.
9202604	Spring Chinook Salmon Early Life History [ODFW]	Dependent. This project PIT-tags wild ESA-listed stocks in natal streams. PIT-tag detections are used by Program RealTime the following spring to make in-season predictions for potential use by TMT and fisheries community.
9302900	Survival Estimation for Dam/Reservoir Passage [NMFS]	Complementary, provides analytical and statistical support to respond to NMFS requests to enhance survival estimation capabilities incorporated in Program SURPH. Responds to requests to NMFS to investigate alternative analyses.
9403300	Fish Passage Center [PSMFC]	Dependent. Uses the in-season smolt index passage information that is provided by the FPC's database center in the RealTime Passage Index Forecaster program to generate on-line forecasts of in-season passage for ESA-listed wild chinook and steelhead.
9503400	EW Program Support [BPA-UW]	Complementary. Provides technical assistance and statistical support essential to BPA's independent decision-making processes through peer review of monitoring and evaluation requirements.
9600600	PATH Facilitation, Technical Assistance & Peer Review [ESSA]	Complementary. Analyzes and interprets tagging data in ways other research entities currently do not perform. Provides an added-value to historical tagging data by testing hypotheses, estimating parameters, and modeling interrelationships.
9600800	PATH Participation by State & Tribal Agencies [ODFW]	Complementary, by analyzing of historical tagging data and publishing reports which are made available to PATH.
9601700	Technical Support for PATH [BioAnalysts]	Complementary, by analyzing tagging data which is provided to PATH as requested.
9700200	PATH-UW Technical Support	Complementary. Provides analyses of selected data sets and issues related to PATH deliberations.
20537	Bonneville Power Administration Non-Discretionary Projects Umbrella

Section 4. Budget for Planning and Design phase

Task-based budget

Objective	Task	Duration in FYs	Estimated 2000 cost	Subcontractor

Outyear objectives-based budget

Objective	Starting FY	Ending FY	Estimated cost

Outyear budgets for Planning and Design phase

Section 5. Budget for Construction and Implementation phase

Task-based budget

Objective	Task	Duration in FYs	Estimated 2000 cost	Subcontractor

Outyear objectives-based budget

Objective	Starting FY	Ending FY	Estimated cost

Outyear budgets for Construction and Implementation phase

Section 6. Budget for Operations and Maintenance phase

Task-based budget

Objective	Task	Duration in FYs	Estimated 2000 cost	Subcontractor

Outyear objectives-based budget

Objective	Starting FY	Ending FY	Estimated cost

Outyear budgets for Operations and Maintenance phase

Section 7. Budget for Monitoring and Evaluation phase

Task-based budget

Objective	Task	Duration in FYs	Estimated 2000 cost	Subcontractor

Outyear objectives-based budget

Objective	Starting FY	Ending FY	Estimated cost

Outyear budgets for Monitoring and Evaluation phase

Section 8. Estimated budget summary

Itemized budget

Item	Note	FY 2000 cost
Personnel	Includes 3% raise.	$158,298
Fringe		$37,932
Supplies	Includes computer upgrades, software licenses, services, etc.	$14,669
Operating	O&M costs occur across a number of budget items. For FY 2000, 41% of budget = 139,546.	$0
Travel		$1,700
Indirect	26% of the total direct costs less costs for equipment and office lease.	$60,866
Other	Office lease	$16,892
Subcontractor	BioAnalysts, Inc.	$50,000
		$340,357

Total estimated budget

Total FY 2000 cost	$340,357
Amount anticipated from previously committed BPA funds	$0
Total FY 2000 budget request	$340,357
FY 2000 forecast from 1999	$0
% change from forecast	0.0%

Cost sharing

Organization	Item or service provided	Amount	Cash or in-kind

Other budget explanation

Schedule Constraints: None.

Reviews and recommendations

This information was not provided on the original proposals, but was generated during the review process.

REVIEW:
ISRP Preliminary Review (ISRP 99-2)

Recommendation:
Fund for one year

Date:
Jun 15, 1999

Comment:

Recommendation: Fund for one year. Subsequent funding contingent on programmatic review. This entire set of smolt monitoring projects needs to receive a programmatic review with the goal to create a central data repository, to provide a central facility for providing routine statistical analysis, and, most crucially, to develop a basin-wide, coordinated design for data collection that is gauged to meet the information needs for management.

Comments: This well-written proposal clearly addresses the need for this work and its relationship to other projects. The work allows strong collaborative effort with other projects. The objectives and associated tasks are clearly stated and aligned. There are no plans for formal evaluation other than those provided by observing the continued use of the products from this on-going project and the success of the investigators in publishing results. The budget and personnel are not adequately justified. The relation to proposal 8910700 should be better explained. The proposal should state what they are going to do with the CWT, PIT tag, and other data listed in the tasks and objectives.

More than any of the other smolt monitoring proposals, this one clearly identifies the need for coordination. On page 10 it states: "Despite these overwhelming needs, given the high expenditures on tagging and data collection, no agreement on a coordinated information system for anadromous fish data, methods of their analyses, or timely dissemination of information to the public has been agreed upon." The proposal does not suggest a solution. This problem affects the entire smolt monitoring program.

REVIEW:
CBFWA Funding Recommendation

Recommendation:
Do Not Fund

Date:
Aug 20, 1999

Comment:

REVIEW:
CBFWA: Subregional Team Comments

Recommendation:

Date:
Aug 20, 1999

Comment:

BPA Non-Discretionary. Objectives not clearly defined. Open-ended contract for statistical support on retainer. Fails to inform critical management decisions. Should include such services as a part of other projects tried to specific tasks or products.

REVIEW:
CBFWA: Fish Passage Advisory Committee Comments

Recommendation:

Date:
Aug 20, 1999

Comment:

Technical Criteria 1: Met? Inc - Objectives not clearly defined

Programmatic Criteria 2: Met? Yes -

Milestone Criteria 3: Met? Yes -

Resource Criteria 4: Met? Yes -

REVIEW:
ISRP Addendum Review (ISRP 99-3)

Recommendation:
Rank 19

Date:
Oct 8, 1999

Comment:

Rank Comments: This project with an excellent history of success serves a need in the program for an independent analysis of monitoring for migration and survival of juveniles and adults. Given that it is an ongoing project, the innovative part would come in the form of 'value added' analysis of available data. The project would benefit existing projects and it has systemwide significance.

REVIEW:
ISRP Review (ISRP 99-3)

Recommendation:
Rank 19

Date:
Oct 8, 1999

Comment:

This project with an excellent history of success serves a need in the program for an independent analysis of monitoring for migration and survival of juveniles and adults. Given that it is an ongoing project, the innovative part would come in the form of 'value added' analysis of available data. The project would benefit existing projects and it has systemwide significance.

REVIEW:
NWPPC Funding Recommendation (NWPPC 2000-6)

Recommendation:
Fund

Date:
Mar 1, 2000

Comment:

[Decision made in 2-2-00 Council Meeting]; BPA non-discretionary technical support project

REVIEW:
NW Power and Conservation Council's FY 2006 Project Funding Review

Funding category:
expense

Date:
May 2005

FY05 NPCC start of year:	FY06 NPCC staff preliminary:	FY06 NPCC July draft start of year:
$394,655	$394,655	$394,655

Sponsor comments: See comment at Council's website