BPA Fish and Wildlife FY 1997 Proposal

Section 1. Administrative
Section 2. Narrative
Section 3. Budget

see CBFWA and BPA funding recommendations

Section 1. Administrative

Title of project
Monitoring and Evaluation Modeling Support

BPA project number   8910800

Business name of agency, institution or organization requesting funding
Univ/WA

Sponsor type   WA-Consultant

Proposal contact person or principal investigator

BPA technical contact   Jim Geiselman, EWI 503/230-5624

Biological opinion ID   NMFS BO RPA A1f; RPA A13; RPA A17

NWPPC Program number   3.2F.2

Short description
Provides analytical tools and databases required to evaluate the effectiveness of hydrosystem operations and other mitigation measures for improved fish survival as required to meet obligations of the ESA, NEPA, and NW Power Act.

Project start year   1989    End year   

Start of operation and/or maintenance   

Project development phase   Implementation

Section 2. Narrative

Related projects
1) Dr. John Skalski's Endangered Species Act contract BPA #DE-B179-87BP35885. Information from this project is used to calibrate and validate the CRiSP models.

2) The PATH process. Our staff contributes directly to the PATH process. Our specific tasks involve mainstem passage issues, effects of the ocean and estuary on survival, and harvest issues.

3) Technical Management Team Web page maintained by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL)

The information the PNL maintains for its TMT Web page is principally obtained from our Web page.

4) NMFS smolt survival analysis supported by National Marine Fisheries Service (Smolt Mortality Data Analysis NA57FE0570). This project is directed at developing mechanistic models for the environmental and biological conditions required for fish to initiate smolt migration.

5) The Army Corps DEGAS project is evaluating the impacts to fish of the total dissolved gas produced from spill. The project is developing way to mitigate the impacts of spill. The CRiSP project is working closely with this Army Corps project. We are using their results to improve CRiSP algorithms and calibration.

Project history
The CRiSP project was initiated to develop a juvenile passage computer model and regionally networked decision support system to (1) estimate impacts due to changes in operation of the Federal Columbia River Power System, (2) evaluate fish migration alternatives, and 3) aid in design and evaluation of Columbia River fisheries research.

Accomplishments for the past year include:

1) Completed calibration, validation and documentation of the CRiSP.1 passage model. Results are published in the CRiSP1.5 manual.

2) Completed the CRiSP.2 harvest model which includes stochastic processes to represent climatic and natural variability in recruitment, and enhanced harvest management features including accurate representation of the Columbia River harvest compact

3) Participated in the development and application of an in-season database for real-time access of river and fish passage conditions through the World Wide Web.

4) Initiated analyses of the impact of ocean conditions on smolt survival in the estuary and ocean. This included developing new indicators of decadal scale climatic factors and analysis of the impact of estuary entrance timing on survival.

5) Provided analytical support for the PATH process, System Operation Review, Snake River Chinook Recovery Team, and the 1995 Biological Opinion.

Biological results achieved
CRiSP 1.5 has been used to evaluate and determine optimum smolt passage conditions. CRiSP 2 has been used to evaluate harvest allocation strategies.

Annual reports and technical papers
Technical Papers:

Anderson, J., D. Dauble, and D. Neitzel. 1989. Proceedings of the Smolt survival workshop. Pacific Northwest Laboratory Publication.

Anderson,J.J 1990. Mathematical models for fish bypass systems. Report to the Portland District of the Army Corps of Engineers.

Feist, B.E., and J.J. Anderson. 1991. Review of Behavior Relevant to Fish Guidance Systems. Fisheries Research Institute, University of Washington, FRI-UW-9102

Zabel, R.W., Anderson, James J., 1991. Validating a Model of Juvenile Salmonid Migration with Radio-tagging Data

Anderson, J.J. 1991. Fish Bypass System Mathematical Models. WATERPOWER 91, Proceedings of the International Conference on Hydropower. July 24-26 1991, Denver, CO.

Swartzman, Gordon L., Hinrichsen, R., Anderson, J.J. and Sherer, Bret, 1991 Columbia River Salmon Passage (CRiSP) Model, Documentation for CRiSP.0

Swartzman, Gordon L., Equilibrium Abundance of Salmon Stocks in a Life Cycle Model with Interacting Hatchery and Natural Substocks, Natural Resource Modeling, 5.(1), Winter 1991

Center for Quantitative Science, 1991, Columbia River Salmon Passage (CRiSP) Model: Documentation for CRiSP.1 Scenario Generating Form of Model, 8-91.

Center for Quantitative Science, 1991, Columbia River Salmon Passage (CRiSP) Model: Documentation for CRiSP 1, Monte Carlo and Scenario Forms of Model, 12-91

Anderson, J.J., 1992. Documentation for CRiSP.1. (Draft Internal Report)

Hayes, J.A., J. Anderson, R. Hinrichsen. 1992 Preliminary Comparison Between CRiSP.1 and CRiSP.0. (Internal Report)

Ianelli, James. 1992. Approaches to Modeling the Harvest Component of Salmonids in the Columbia River Basin. (Internal report)

Thomas, Virginia and J.J. Anderson. 1992. Stochastic Life Cycle Model (SLCMc): Documentation for SLCMc. (Draft internal report)

Swartzman, Gordon L. 1992. Review of Binomial River Reach Passage Model (Internal report)

Zabel, Richard W. and J.J. Anderson. 1992. Parameter estimates of travel time for sub-yearling chinook salmon. (Internal report)

Anderson, J.J. 1992. Documentation for CRiSP.1. (Draft internal report)

Anderson, J.J. Richard A. Hinrichsen, 1992. Factors affecting migration velocity of juvenile salmon. (submitted to "Transactions of the American Fisheries Society")

Hayes, Joshua A., William Hewitt, George Kremlicka, 1992. Modem Manual for CRiSP.1 Users. (Documentation for users)

Lockart, Alice E. 1992. Users Manual for Vitality Model (Rough draft)

Thomas, Virginia, Michael McCann and J.J. Anderson. 1992. Stochastic Life Cycle Model (SLCMc): Documentation for SLCMc. (Draft internal report)

Himeda, Mark. 1992. Coded-Wire Tag Retrieval and Analysis System (CRAS) (Internal report)

Norris, James. 1992. Estimating Ocean Harvest Rates and Residence Proportions for Pacific Salmon Stocks. (Draft report)

Hayes, Josh. 1992. Real flow records versus CRiSP-modulated period average flows. (Internal report)

Thomas, Virginia, C. Wilson. 1992. Stochastic Life Cycle Model: SLCMc Version 5.1 Functional Description and Maintenance Document. (Draft internal report)

Hayes, Josh, 1993. Modeling Salmon Passage in the Columbia River System: Delayed Passage at Dam Powerhouses.

Zabel, Rich. 1993. Model of Juvenile Salmon Downstream Migration.

Anderson, J.J. 1993. Report to the Snake River Salmon Recovery Team on an Analysis of Spring and Fall Chinook Survivals using the CRiSP Mainstem Passage Model

McCann, Michael. 1993. Stochastic Life Cycle Model: A tool for Simulating the Population
Dynamics of Anadromous Salmonids (Internal draft report)

Anderson, J.J. 1993. Second Report to the Snake River Salmon Recovery Team on an Analysis of Spring Chinook Survivals using the CRiSP Mainstem Passage Model

Anderson, J.J. 1993. Calibration, November, 1993.

Anderson, J.J. 1994. Two Scenarios for Columbia River Spring Chinook Survival

Hayes, Josh. 1994. Correspondence with U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Walla Walla District, and 2) Results of TBR/Spread the Risk sensitivity model runs using CRiSP.1.4.3, SOR calibration.

Anderson. J.J. 1994.. Fitting Snake River Pit Tag Data with CRiSP

Anderson, J.J. 1994. Evaluation of NMFS Spill Recommendation

Anderson, J.J. 1994. Use of the FLUSH passage model in evaluating the NMFS emergency spill program

Anderson, J.J. 1994. CRiSP 1.4.5 Analysis of the Proposed Summer Spill. Report filed to NMFS, Montlake Laboratory

Anderson, J.J. 1994. Analysis of the Proposed Summer Spill

McCann, Mike. 1994. Comparison of Models

Anderson, J.J. and Rich Hinrichsen. 1994. A Life History Approach to Managing the Columbia
River Hydrosystem for the Benefit of Salmon Populations

Anderson, J.J. 1994. FLUSH and PAM models: A critique of concepts and calibrations

Anderson, J.J. 1994. A discussion of parameters in juvenile passage models

Norris, James G. 1994. The Merging of Empirical and Modeling Research: Columbia River Models and Beyond

Norris, James G. 1994. Analysis of Harvest Reduction Options for Rebuilding Depressed Chinook Stocks, memo to Pete Dygert, Dec. 14

Anderson. J.J. 1994. Comparison of Mainstem Recovery Options Recover-1 and DFOP

Zabel, R. 1994. Spatial and Temporal Models of Migrating Duveile Salmon with Applications, Ph.D. thesis

Hinrichsen, R.A. 1994. Optimization Models for Understanding Migration Patterns of Juvenile Chinook Salmon, Ph.D. thesis

Anderson, J.J. 1995. The Impacts of a Spill Program, Jan. 12

Anderson, J.J. 1995. Evaluation of John Day drawdown and Columbia River flow Augmentation in the Revised 1994-1998 Biological Opinion

Norris, James G. 1995. A simple spreadsheet Model for Evaluating Recovery Strategies for Snake
River Fall Chinook Salmon

Anderson, J.J. 1995. A Review of the Mathematical Approach used in "Spill and 1995 Risk Management", February, 1995

Anderson. J.J. 1995. Columbia River World Wide Web Group

Anderson, J.J. 1995. Climate Cycles, Habitat Boundaries and the Endangered Species Act: A New Perspective on Endangered Salmon

Swartzman, Gordon. 1995. Review of the Hungry Horse and Libby Reservoir Models, Sept. 1995

Zabel, R., and James Anderson, 1995. What factors are important in determining juvenile salmon migration rate?: A nested sequence of nonlinear regression models

Hayes, Josh and James Anderson. 1995. Use of a simulation model to assess mitigation measures for Endangered `Snake River Salmon Stocks

Anderson, J.J.1995 Impact of 1955 River Operations on Smolt Survival

Beer, Nick. 1996. Modelling the Growth of Salmonid Embryos, submitted to the Journal of Theoretical biology.

Ebbesmeyer, Curt C. and Rich Hinrichsen and W. James Igraham, Jr., 1996. 20th Century Timing of the Spring and Fall Wind Transitions Along the West Coast of North America, to be published in the Prooceedings of the Sustainzbler Fisheries Conference in Victoria. B.C., Canada April 26-30.

Ebbesmeyer, Curt C. 1996. CRiSP Project 1995 Progress Report

Management implications
Informed and effective decisions making for hydrosystem operations, implementation of mitigation alternatives, and research needed to improve fish survival

Specific measureable objectives
1) Improve the CRiSP.1 passage model through general I/O improvements, adding more flexible transport mortality modeling, characterizing wild fish migration patterns, modeling upstream adult migration, and updating model calibration as hydrosystem structure changes and new data become available, and developing a World Wide Web accessible model.

2) Provide additional in-season analysis capabilities for the Technical Management Team (TMT) including prediction of the passage and survival of juveniles and adults through the hydrosystem as a function of hydrosystem operations. Model predictions will be evaluated and validated through statistical comparisons to the observed passage indices at the end of the migration season.

2) Improve the CRiSP.2 harvest model through enhanced calibration procedures, capabilities to model age specific spatial distribution of stocks; improve I/O and GUIs; and develop PC based and World Wide Web-based forms of the model.

3) Evaluate the relationship between decadal scale fluctuations in ocean conditions and their impact on fish survival and incorporate the results into CRiSP models.

4) Provide the BPA and other regional entities access to fisheries and riverine database. An essential purpose of the database is for in-house access required for operation and calibration of the CRiSP management decision support systems.

5) Provide real time and historic information and graphics via the World Wide Web.

6) Participate and provide analytical support for the regional process for analyzing and testing hypotheses (PATH) and for in-season analyses of fish passage conditions needed for real time hydrosystem operation decisions.

Testable hypothesis
The CRiSP models will develop testable hypotheses on the effects of hydrosystem operations and other mitigation of actions on salmon survival. For the PATH process, specific (PATH process Level 3) hypotheses will be developed for passage and travel time of fish through the hydrosystem and dam passage measures including; fish guidance and spill efficiencies and forebay delay. Aggregate hypotheses (PATH process Level 2) will be developed to address the factors contributing to the decline of the Columbia River stocks.

Underlying assumptions or critical constraints
N/A

Methods
The approach in the CRiSP project is to describe the movement and survival of fish through their life cycle in terms of mathematically expressed ecological mechanisms. The models provide ecologically mechanistic connections between management actions and fish survival In addition, the models incorporate major environmental variations on a range of time scales from within a season to decadal.

A number of statistical methods are used to calibrate and validate the models. The principle methods include linear regressions and maximum likelihood techniques.

The models address ocean and stream type chinook and steelhead in the Snake and Columbia drainage basins.

Brief schedule of activities
Projects tasks in 1997 include work in seven areas

1. Continued calibration and validation of the mainstem passage model in areas of fish migration, effects of spill on gas generations and the impacts on salmon, improved modeling of fish forebay behavior.

2. Continued development of the model into freshwater stages of the salmon life cycle including: adult upstream migration, straying and survival in migration; egg to fry emergence timing and survival, fry to smolt survival, and timing of smolt migration.

3. Continued studies in nearshore oceanographic effects to understand the impacts and mechanisms by which seasonal and decadal scale climatic fluctuations affect salmon productivity. In 1997 we will begin developing an ecologically-based description of why smolt survival varies with timing of entrance into the estuary. We will participate in the planning of research to evaluate potential mechanisms and will assist in developing fish transportation systems to improve overall fish survival.

4. Continued development of the CRiSP.2 harvest model. The model will incorporate information gained from studies on fish ocean distributions and decadal scale fluctuations to better resolve historical trends and to improve stock predictions by inclusion of climatic predictions. The model calibration algorithm will be completed and made available to researchers in 1997.

5. Development of Internet tools. We will develop Java-based Web tools for data access and the ability to run models over the World Wide Web. The goal is to improve access to the information and models used for fisheries management. Initial Web tools will be made available to the fisheries managers in 1997 including a Java interface to CRiSP.1 and .2.

6. Participation in regional planning and analysis efforts. Our group will continue to work in regional evaluation of hypotheses developed through PATH.

7. Real time tracking and modeling of fish migration will continue in 1997. The purpose is to predict in real time the impact of the hydrosystem operation on the rate of migration and survival of juvenile fish through the hydrosystem. In 1997 we will also have the ability to predict the impacts of spill and flows on river properties including total dissolved gas, temperature and river velocity.

Biological need
The CRiSP project provides advanced modeling capabilities to evaluate the impacts of management options on Columbia River salmon stocks. Currently the models provide information to evaluate the impact of hydrosystem operations and harvest on the fish life cycle. In the future, the modeling will include information on other critical life cycle components including their survival in spawning and rearing tributaries and survival through estuary passage.

The models provide the region tools to evaluate management actions, prioritize the potential effectiveness of actions, identify critical uncertainties, and assist in the design of the research needed to reduce the uncertainties.

Critical uncertainties
The critical uncertainties of the project involve model predictions. To deal with uncertainty in predictions, a portion of the project activity is devoted to model validation in which model predictions are compared to data derived independently from the model calibration. A second way to deal with the critical uncertainty is through model sensitivity analyses in which the significance of unknown model parameters or mechanisms can be evaluated by identifying how the projected range of the parameters affects salmon survival predictions.

Summary of expected outcome
Informed and effective decision making for hydrosystem operations, implementation of mitigation alternatives, and research needed for improved fish survival.

Dependencies/opportunities for cooperation
The full value of the decision support systems being developed on this project can be achieved by close cooperation with the Federal, State and Tribal fisheries agencies.

Risks
The project has no risk to fish

Monitoring activity
The projects outcomes can be monitored in through direct and indirect measures. Direct use of the CRiSP tools can be monitored by the number of times users access to the Columbia Basin Research Web page. Through this page users can access our data bases, model predictions, and run the models. Direct quantitative monitoring also can be described in terms of publications and reports produced by the project.

A quantitative measure of the project outcome is achieved in the model validation process. This is relevant to the in-season real time monitoring where predictions of river conditions, smolt migration and survival generated within the season are compared to the final results of the migration at the end of the season.

Section 3. Budget

* For most projects, Authorized is the amount recommended by CBFWA and the Council. Planned is amount currently allocated. Contracted is the amount obligated to date of printout.

Funding recommendations

CBFWA funding review group   System Policy

Recommendation    Tier 1 - fund

Recommended funding level   $200,000

BPA 1997 authorized budget (approved start-of-year budget)   $200,000