BPA Fish and Wildlife FY 1997 Proposal

Section 1. Administrative
Section 2. Narrative
Section 3. Budget

see CBFWA and BPA funding recommendations

Section 1. Administrative

Title of project
Technical Assistance With the Life Cycle Model

BPA project number   9303701

Business name of agency, institution or organization requesting funding
Charlie Paulsen

Sponsor type   OR-Consultant

Proposal contact person or principal investigator

BPA technical contact   Jim Geiselman, EWI 503/230-5732

Biological opinion ID   Program Support

NWPPC Program number   3.2F.2

Short description
Evaluation of biological impacts of hydro operations through life cycle modeling.

Project start year   1994    End year   2000

Start of operation and/or maintenance   

Project development phase   Implementation

Section 2. Narrative

Related projects
NMFS Program for Analyzing and Testing Hypotheses (PATH)

Project history
ESA listing of Snake River stocks required model development and analysis to estimate adult returns under various hydrosystem operations. The PATH process has identified hypothese to be tested with existing data, and the need for design of monitoring programs for recovery planning. These hypothese will be tested and models modified as needed.

Biological results achieved
Research/modeling project - no specific biological results.

Annual reports and technical papers
Past analyses included in ESA records.

Management implications
Results are expected to assist NMFS in deciding on alternative actions in recovery planning and in design of monitoring activities to assess the effects of management actions.

Specific measureable objectives
Collect data and perform analyses to help distinguish among hypotheses regarding past effects of hydro operations and habitat condition. Develop methods to monitor effects of future management actions.

Testable hypothesis
PATH has developed lists of specific hypotheses to be tested under this project. See October 1995 PATH report for details.

Underlying assumptions or critical constraints
Not applicable.

Methods
1. Comparisons of escapement and recruitment in stocks in good/bad spawning and rearing habitat.
2. Comparisons of upstream and downstream stocks.
3. Comparisons of stocks with different ocean migration patterns.
4. Assessment of future possible management actions in light of results from 1-3, above.
5. Assessment of monitoring activities needed in light of observed (past) variability in escapement and recruitment.
6. No field research anticipated as part of this project.

Brief schedule of activities
1996-1997
1. PATH retrospective results and workshop.
2. PATH prospective (monitoring) results and workshop.
3. Life cycle model analyses of management alternatives.
4. Life cycle model modifications, as needed for specific analyses, specific out-year activities not yet determined, as these will depend on results of 1-4.

Biological need
More accurate projections of the effects of Recovery Plan actions are needed by NMFS. The project results are intended to help provide these.

Critical uncertainties
Not applicable

Summary of expected outcome
Same as biological objectives.

Dependencies/opportunities for cooperation
Not applicable.

Risks
Not applicable.

Monitoring activity
Results will be reviewed by PATH participants and outside review panel.

Section 3. Budget

* For most projects, Authorized is the amount recommended by CBFWA and the Council. Planned is amount currently allocated. Contracted is the amount obligated to date of printout.

Funding recommendations

CBFWA funding review group   System Policy

Recommendation    Tier 1 - fund

Recommended funding level   $60,000

BPA 1997 authorized budget (approved start-of-year budget)   $60,000